28 days later

A report that summarizes an influenza pandemic simulation conducted during the World Economic Forum in January was released yesterday. The simulation predicts a "complete halt in everyday life" by Day 28 of a pandemic:

Hospitals are inundated with the sick, the very sick, and the "worried well". Businesses are reporting significant absentee rates, while school systems have been shut across the country for almost three weeks. Supply chains have been interrupted as truck drivers fell sick or refused to deliver their goods, afraid of putting themselves at risk. Food stores across the region have closed, unable to restock shelves. Hospitals are running out of basic medical supplies.

One very worrisome item in the simulation is a prediction that "the Internet would shut down within two to four days of the outbreak". Many organizations and businesses (my own included) have based their pandemic planning in large part upon repositioning staff to telecommute from home when the outbreak begins. But the report says that telecommunication infrastructures will likely be overwhelmed during the crisis and "telecommuting will not be a viable option".

Even more worrisome is the state of the federal government's continuity of operations planning by its own IT professionals:

Federal IT leaders are aware of the need to prepare for a pandemic but, according to specialists, haven’t grasped the scale and subtleties of the problem.